From now till the end of the season, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool will play 34 games to decide one of the most hotly contested Premier League title races in recent memory. Separated just by five points (Arsenal having played a game less) each of the three teams believe that they have a chance to win the league.
Each team had started the season under different circumstances. Manchester City let go of some of their senior players and replaced them with rising youngsters. Arsenal followed the same pattern by adding players of the calibre of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber. Meanwhile, Liverpool had to go through the agony of missing out on several top transfer targets, such as Jude Bellingham and Moises Caicedo, but still managed to create a squad that surpassed expectations.
However, such is the beauty of football that these three teams now find themselves on the cusp of making their name immortal in football folklore. So, which of the Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal have the best run of games in the final stretch of the league? We explain.
Manchester City games analysis
With just one point behind Liverpool, City are primed for another intense title race. It is not the first time that they find themselves going head-to-head with Jurgen Klopp’s men. They won the title by one point on two occasions (2018-19 and 2021-22), which gives them an edge mentally over Liverpool.
On top of that, out of the three top teams in the league, City has the easiest run on paper. Their latest match against city rivals Manchester United where they came from one goal down to eventually triumph. Currently, the club are only without two of their major players in, Jack Grealish and Josko Gvardiol.
However, City’s squad depth is such that they have more than enough players to negate their absence. City will start their final stretch of games with probably their toughest game of the season against Liverpool at Anfield. Defeat in this game would mean City staring down a four-point deficit, which could prove tough to bridge.
This will be followed by a trip to Amex to face Brighton before welcoming fellow top-four teams Arsenal and Aston Villa, respectively. However, post this they have a relatively easier run. They face Crystal Palace (away), Luton Town (home), Tottenham Hotspur (away), Nottingham Forest (away), Wolverhampton Wanderers (home), Fulham (away), and West Ham United (home). Apart from Tottenham, City are more than likely to win every other game during this run.
29 – This was the first time Manchester City had ever come from behind to beat Manchester United in a Premier League match, in the 29th occasion of them falling behind in this fixture in the competition (D3 L25). Turnaround. pic.twitter.com/0BFekEXQny
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 3, 2024
Guardiola’s men have been in brilliant form all through the season, barring a lean patch in November. They are currently on a 12-game unbeaten streak. However, they have been far from perfect and have shown weakness in crucial phases of several of their games. In fact, according to the Expected Points (xP) metric City should have scored 57.4 points but have outperformed it by 4.6.
Given their run of games, their injury list, and their previous history in these situations, City are primed to add another league title unless Liverpool pull off what City did in the 2018-19 and 2021-22 seasons.
Liverpool games analysis
A major advantage that Liverpool have is that among their last 11 games, six are at home and the rest away. In the case of Manchester City and Arsenal, both teams have to play six home games and six away games. In recent games, Liverpool have shown true champions’ grit as they have won the game while operating far from their best. It is evident on their Expected Points (xP) rating where they have over performed by an amazing 9.91.
Liverpool’s bid for their second Premier League title starts at Anfield against Manchester City in a game that will have massive consequences. Apart from the three points, the mental boost will be so immense that both teams will come out all guns blazing.
They will follow it up with two tricky games, the first against city rivals Everton at Goodison Park before welcoming a tenacious Brighton at home. The last time Liverpool played away to the Toffees, they shared points. After Brighton, Liverpool have to face Sheffield United before going to Old Trafford.
Liverpool’s last six games are against Crystal Palace (home), Fulham (away), West Ham United (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
This run of games is by no means easy, with seven of their opponents in the top half of the table. However, if there is one area where Liverpool have excelled this season, it is to triumph when the going got tough. They are the top team in the leagues on attacking metrics such as Buildup Disruption Percentage (BDP), Gegenpressing Intensity Percentage (GPI), and Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (PPDA).
43 – In all competitions, substitutes have contributed to 43 goals for Liverpool this season (21 goals, 22 assists), the most of any side in Europe’s big-five leagues. Mentality. pic.twitter.com/zVlTQSGhTD
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 2, 2024
Liverpool have only lost two games this season in the league (against Tottenham and Arsenal). So their highest probability of dropping points could be against City, United, and the impressive Aston Villa.
Liverpool also have a huge injury list which includes Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson, Trent Alexander Arnold, Wataru Endo, Ryan Gravenberch, Alisson Becker, Diogo Jota, Curtis Jones, Joel Matip, and Thiago Alacantara.
While Salah and Robertson are expected to be fit in time for the clash against Pep Guardiola’s men, others will take at least a month before they could return to action. Endo, who has been a rock at the number six position, is the most devastating blow among these.
So, if Klopp wants to win the league, Liverpool will have to produce one of the best winning streaks in their history. However, this season, Liverpool look like a team that is capable of doing that.
Arsenal Games Analysis
Out of all the three teams, Arsenal have the toughest runs considering the fact that they are four points behind league leaders Liverpool. The Gunners as a team have been the most inconsistent among the top three this season. And a look at their previous five games shows us exactly why. Mikel Arteta’s men are currently on a six-game winning streak. However, before that, they lost three and drew one in five games.
Arsenal start their last 12 games with an away trip to Sheffield United before welcoming Brentford. This, however, will be followed by five games, which will determine how great of a team they are. These games will determine whether Arsenal will even be in the title race come the final stretch of games.
The five games are Chelsea (home), Manchester City (away), Luton Town (home), Brighton (away), and Aston Villa (home). The best-case scenario for the team could be to earn a point against City and win all the other games. Anything less than four victories would seriously hamper their title ambitions.
9 & 10 – Arsenal have scored more goals from corners than any other team in the Premier League this season (9), while their 10 headed goals are also the most of any side. Choreographed. pic.twitter.com/MzmR6SYirj
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 20, 2024
Their next six games are also no easy sailing, with away trips against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. Six of the teams they have to face yet are in the top ten, making it a very tall order for them.
Arsenal’s injury list is not as big as Liverpool’s, but it does include key players. Jurrien Timber was supposed to be the leader of the backline, but a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) has kept him out for the majority of the season. Others to join him on the list are Thomas Partey, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Takehiro Tomiyasu.
However, almost all of them are on the verge of returning, which will be music to Arteta’s ears, who will need all hands on deck if they are to script history.
